Juba, South Sudan – The political and security situation in South Sudan has taken a dangerous turn following the arrest of politicians and two army generals linked to First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar. The detentions have heightened tensions in the capital, Juba, and raised fears of renewed political instability in the fragile nation.The arrests come against a backdrop of rising insecurity in several regions, particularly in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, where clashes between government forces and the White Army, a Nuer-aligned militant group, have led to the capture of Nasir Town by the rebels on March 4.
The security situation in Nasir has been deteriorating since mid-February, following violent confrontations between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the White Army, a militia that historically fought alongside Machar’s forces during the 2013-2018 civil war. The group is closely aligned with the ethnic Nuer community, Machar’s political base, and has a long-standing history of conflict with government troops dominated by President Salva Kiir’s ethnic Dinka forces.The White Army launched an aggressive assault on Nasir Town on March 4, successfully overrunning government positions and taking control of the town. The escalation has fueled concerns that South Sudan may be slipping back into large-scale conflict, despite the fragile peace agreement that ended years of brutal civil war.
The arrests of two army generals and politicians affiliated with Machar followed a high-level presidential security meeting on March 3, chaired by President Salva Kiir Mayardit. The meeting sought to address the growing instability in Nasir, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states, regions experiencing heightened tensions.Machar had previously called for urgent dialogue with Kiir in a letter dated February 27, 2025, warning that South Sudan was stuck in a political deadlock and needed external mediation. Reports indicate that his letter highlighted worsening security conditions in Upper Nile and Western Equatoria and urged immediate action to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.The high-level meeting brought together key political figures, including:
During the meeting, the government decided to send additional troops to Nasir County to replace long-standing forces stationed in the region. The deployment will include elements of the Agwelek militia, a powerful armed group led by General Johnson Olony, a former rebel commander who now operates under government command.
Following the meeting, Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth addressed the media, emphasizing that national unity remained a top priority.
“The leaders agreed to cooperate for the sake of the nation,” he said, urging citizens to remain calm and avoid actions that could further destabilize the country.
Makuei also called for community support along the route from Malakal to Nasir County, encouraging local residents to facilitate the safe passage of government troops.Minister of Petroleum Puot Kang, a senior figure in Machar’s SPLM-IO, echoed the appeal. He urged citizens to allow the forces to reach their barracks in Nasir without incident, stressing the need for collective peace efforts.Civil society leader Edmond Yakani described the meeting as a step forward, noting that it aimed at educating the public on the importance of stability and coexistence.
“This dialogue is a step forward in fostering understanding and unity among communities,” Yakani said, while also urging the leadership to take concrete action to de-escalate tensions and prevent further violence.
Despite government assurances, the situation remains highly volatile. The White Army’s recent military success in capturing Nasir Town has raised serious concerns about an expanding rebellion, especially with the deployment of additional government troops and allied militias.The presence of General Olony’s Agwelek forces in the region has further complicated the dynamics. Olony, an influential warlord, commands a militia primarily composed of ethnic Shilluk fighters, who have historically clashed with both Dinka and Nuer groups. His involvement in the operation risks triggering fresh ethnic hostilities in the already fragile Upper Nile region.Moreover, social media propaganda has worsened the situation, with various factions using online platforms to spread inflammatory messages, further inflaming tensions. In response, the Presidency issued a public appeal urging citizens to avoid spreading false or divisive information online.
As South Sudan navigates this tense political and security crisis, all eyes are on Juba and Nasir. With Machar’s allies arrested, an active military offensive in Upper Nile, and the deployment of government-aligned militias, the risk of full-scale conflict looms large.Observers fear that if immediate steps are not taken to defuse tensions, the situation could escalate into another deadly cycle of ethnic violence and civil war—just years after a fragile peace was brokered.For now, the fate of South Sudan hangs in the balance as the world watches how the country’s leaders handle one of the most critical moments in its post-independence history.
