A new study published in The Lancet HIV has sounded the alarm over the potential devastating impact of international funding cuts on global HIV programs. The research, conducted by Melbourne’s Burnet Institute, warns that a projected 24 percent reduction in global HIV funding by 2026 could result in 10.75 million new infections and 2.93 million preventable deaths between 2025 and 2030.
The study models the effects of significant funding cuts, with key donors—including the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and the Netherlands—announcing reductions ranging from 8 to 70 percent. These countries collectively contribute over 90 percent of global HIV assistance. The United States, which has historically been the largest contributor through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), halted all HIV-related funding on January 20, exacerbating the crisis.
The reduction in funding threatens to undo years of progress made in combating HIV/AIDS and risks reversing efforts to end the global health crisis by 2030. The study particularly highlights the severe consequences for low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where vulnerable communities depend heavily on international aid.
Countries such as Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe are expected to bear the brunt of the cuts, as they are highly dependent on external funding to sustain their HIV programs. Currently, nearly half of global HIV funding comes from international aid, with 54 percent of that from PEPFAR.
Experts warn that without urgent intervention, millions of lives remain at risk, and the gains made in the fight against HIV could be severely undermined.
